Washington should learn from history. Given its stance on Iraq, it clearly hasn't. U.S. President Barack Obama declared on the campaign trail in 2008 that he will have all U.S. forces out of Iraq by the end of 2011, with troops beginning to leave in large quantities beginning in the summer of 2011. This policy has been hailed by the American public, as most feel it is time to withdraw and allow Iraq the opportunity to stand on its own. However, analysts, military officials and Iraqi officials agree that the U.S. should not delude itself. One year is not nearly enough time to train Iraqi forces to counter future threats.
Although Iraq now claims to have more than enough troops and policemen in its arsenal (in the 100,000s for both divisions), it is quality not quantity that counts. Throughout the U.S. and Iraqi defense communities it is widely whispered and almost obvious to most that Iraq just isn't ready yet.
Reports on the ground indicate that the Iraqi public are uneasy about the U.S. departure one year from now. Many may not enjoy a U.S. presence in their country, but foreign troops are at least keeping the peace and providing some security while Iraqi forces are nascent. But, their confidence in the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Iraqi Police is next to nil and some citizens are securing their own departure from the country when the U.S. leaves and current trends subsist.
Iraq's government is in gridlock with Nouri al Maliki's party and former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's party unable to reach a compromise to establish a coalition government to initiate decision making. It is safe to say that there is little credence in an optimistic view of Iraq's future.
That is where Mr. Obama comes in. Much confidence will have to be churned. In his address tomorrow, the U.S. president will have to assure the American public, it's armed forces and the Iraqi public that the security situation in Iraq will not get any worse once the West is gone. However, most will see that bold attempt at reassurance as a half-hearted fabrication, and rightly so.
Current terrorist attacks in Iraq are not devastating, but that may also be because al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and affiliated insurgent groups are just getting started. Regardless of what the Obama Administration says, there is an imminent threat generating from dormant terrorist and insurgent groups waiting for U.S. forces to depart to successfully launch an anti-government campaign. This is the most daunting prospect and if not countered properly, will plunge the country back into chaos. A situation Iraq's forces are not experienced at handling.
When analyzed, it can be argued that Mr. Obama is now pushing this withdrawal policy to move the deadlocked Iraqi government to compromise. This approach may seem effective, however, what if Iraqi politicians do not absorb the threat of withdrawal? They could possibly respond by arming themselves and preparing for war all over again. Then, will the U.S. have to re-invade Iraq?
Mr. Obama is more than capable of diluting these fears. Now, it is just a question of whether or not he is willing to do so. Given the unpopularity with the war at home, it seems unlikely. However, if he chooses to, he can take the necessary steps in ensuring Iraq's stability. The Bush Administration's security agreement with Iraq may be the largest impediment he will have to overcome in order to leave Iraq somewhat stable and secure. Instead of completely removing all troops from Iraq in twelve months, the U.S. president should re-negotiate the terms of the agreement leaving at least half of the troops currently stationed for reconnaissance, training, logistics and armed support if needed. Training is the most essential. Iraqi officials and current trends declare that few if any Iraqi policemen or soldiers have been trained in counterterrorism; an indispensable component to winning any militant or terrorist threat.
However, no negotiations can take place without a working Iraqi government. Before any of this can be done, the Obama Administration should work as a mediator in talks between the two parties. U.S. envoys will be more than sufficient. Given the complexity of Iraq's government and stubbornness of its political officials; it will be a difficult task, but no one wants to leave Iraq unstable, so there is a source for motivation. It will not be easy, but if the U.S. president wants to leave behind a legacy in Iraq he will not adhere to his 2011 deadline.
