Blaming the Pakistani Army is Nothing New...

The Watcher argues that the military documents disclosed by WIkiLeaks detailing the deteriorating ground situation in Afghanistan briefed the public (or at least those who follow the current events in Afghanistan) of nothing it already knew. One can argue that the public disclosure now puts the U.S. in a critical position to strengthen the pressure on Pakistan (more specifically ISI) to abandon it's military support for extremism in the South Asian region. However, given the budgetary relationship the U.S. has with Pakistan, awarding them $1 billion a year, it is difficult to understand why Washington continues to pledge such a vast amount of money when it is well aware it will be used at their own expense. Given the Americans' history, the U.S. will not openly shoot itself in the foot when its activities in the region are well known. It has recently dawned on The Watcher that there might be a secret agenda that the U.S. is pursuing in the South Asian region. This prospect may shed some light as to why they are substantiating Pakistan's armed forces with little plans to reduce foreign aid when Islamabad schemes contrary to their interests. Perhaps all roads lead to India like many Pakistani security initiatives?

Cold War 2010?

The general public of the international community is flummoxed over why the US-Russian spy swap episode came and went so swiftly and gingerly. One only need take a look at the recent success in US-Russian relations, deemed by many statesman and analysts as a "reset" in diplomacy between the two powers. It is worth noting that the international community is long passed the cold war era and for now, a unipolar world looms in existence. General Russian public opinion is that it is in Russia's best interest to pursue good relations with the US, and vice versa. However, it is important to note that every major power in the world today spies on another. So, the investigative accomplishment by the American FBI should come as no surprise. In The Watcher's opinion, embarrassment should come to Moscow, not because they were caught spying on America, but because they did it so clumsily. This is just a minor speed bump in a long road to normalizing relations between these two.

The McChrystal Fiasco

The replacement of General Stanley McChrystal with Iraq war hero Gen. David Petraeus as lead commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan has calmed some uncertainty of whether the West can succeed in Afghanistan (however you define success). As convenient as the appointment may seem, the McChrystal affair is not only another controversial topic in civilian-military relations, but it also sheds light on the friction between the Obama Administration's top national security advisors. Incidentally, this is evidence enough that the situation in Afghanistan is more grim than one may have previously perceived. With opposition to the war running rampant throughout the international community, the Obama Administration owes it to the world and the American people to explain why this truly is a "war of necessity."

For what it's worth. The Watcher has argued in favor of the war and will continue to do so. There is too much at stake for the foreign troops to pack up and leave. Such an action may lead Afghanistan to a civil war, which will drag in it's neighbors such as Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and India, vying for control and influence. Similarly, withdrawal will send a message to the Afghan people, terrorist organizations, and states currently fighting their own insurgencies that Western powers do not have the strategy or wherewithal to tackle such tasks. It will be a humiliating defeat. For the past year The Watcher has been advocating for a change in strategy in Afghanistan. McChrystal's COIN initiative was hailed around policy circles around the world, but The Watcher suggests that this strategy does not reach what lies at the core of true counterinsurgency. It is imperative that foreign troops recognize that they are not being outgunned by the Taliban, they are being outgoverned. The Afghan people will never recognize a government as oppressive and corrupt as Hamid Karzai's.

Unless Gen. Petraeus turns the focus of his COIN strategy on battling corruption before improving military operations, the Taliban will continue to be one step ahead in the game. Similar to what an Afghan official once said, "if thousands of operations are carried out it will make no difference so long as corrupt officials are in place."